Is Donald Trump’s Presidency Helping—or Hurting—His Real Estate Brand?

Getty Images; realtor.com

Ever since President Donald Trump kicked off his unlikely candidacy for the nation’s top political office in June 2015 at the foot of the golden Trump Tower escalators in Manhattan, he has become an unabashed hero to millions of Americans—and a pariah to millions more. But long before he was a polarizing politician, he was a brash and publicity-savvy real estate mogul who built one of the world’s most recognizable luxury real estate companies.

He spent a half-century building his real estate brand, and two and a half years (more or less) building his political one. We set out to discover what sort of impact Trump the politician—and the many controversies surrounding his presidency—has had on the value of his residential holdings.

“The bottom line of real estate is location, location, location. But that’s not entirely true. It is also perception, perception, perception,” says Marc Rudov, president of California-based MHR Enterprises, who advises CEOs on branding.

To see how Trump properties have fared since he ran for office, realtor.com® analyzed sales in all of the U.S. residential buildings listed on the Trump Organization’s website that had data available. These 23 apartment or condominium buildings, in seven states, come in many forms: from high-rise towers in Manhattan to luxury beach-side apartments in Miami. Some buildings are high-rises with a mix of apartments, hotel rooms, and street-level stores. (Data were not available for the Estate at Trump National, Los Angeles in California.)

Performance of Trump Properties.

Tony Frenzel

According to our analysis, in 2016, the year that Trump was elected president, the number of sales overall in his buildings fell 7.9% from the previous year. It dropped another 7.9% in 2017, his eventful first year in office.

Meanwhile, the median price of his properties dipped 2.3%, to $972,000, from 2016 to 2017. And that was significantly less than the 8.7% drop from 2015 to 2016. (In the 21 Trump buildings with sales in both 2016 and 2017, 15 experienced a decrease in the price per square foot.)

The prices of units purchased in his buildings fell in New York, Miami, Chicago, and Honolulu—four of his biggest luxury markets—in 2017. Only his combined condo and hotel in Las Vegas saw strong price gains. And only Manhattan and Las Vegas saw an increase in the overall number of sales.

Donald Trump’s remarkable skills at branding helped build the Trump empire. But financially speaking, that could be a double-edged sword for the nation’s most famous man, who now has a fervent base of supporters and detractors alike. As Rudov says, “If you are thinking about buying a unit in Trump Tower, what will the people in your social circle think?”

But it’s not only Trump properties that have seen a slowdown as of late. The luxury real estate market has softened nationally as more ultrahigh-end buildings are coming online around the same time, with fewer foreign buyers entering the fray. This is particularly true in New York City, where the bulk of Trump’s residential real estate (and his corporate headquarters) is located. The age and style of Trump’s Manhattan buildings may also be working against them in the sales market.

From cutting red ribbons to red tape

Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images; George Pimentel/WireImage

It’s important to note that the president’s name on a building doesn’t mean he owns it. The full extent of Trump’s real estate is hard to track, since the Trump Organization is a private company that doesn’t disclose all of its holdings. Just because a building is listed on the organization’s website doesn’t mean the organization owns it or even a majority stake in it, and there are likely some buildings that aren’t listed at all.

Complicating the matter is that Donald Trump often licenses his name for all kinds of things, including to builders and developers. So not every Trump building is owned by the president and his family.

The Trump Organization did not respond to realtor.com’s requests for comment.

How are Trump’s properties doing in the city that made him famous?

The president cut his teeth on Manhattan real estate. And his glamorous, over-the-top luxury buildings have been synonymous with the city since the 1980s.

“Trump tried to get as much newspaper coverage as possible [early in his career], always pushing his Trump [brand] and the adjective ‘billionaire’ attached to his name or ‘successful real estate developer’ and ‘rich,’”says Gwenda Blair, author of “The Trumps: Three Generations of Builders and a President.” “He targeted [buyers] who wanted to show off.”

Donald Trump, with a model of Trump Tower in 1980, and outside the Tower in 1997.

Getty Images; realtor.com

There are 10 residential buildings in Manhattan, one of the bluest of blue cities, listed on the Trump Organization’s website. Five more developments are located in nearby suburbs in New York’s Westchester County; Stamford, CT; and Jersey City, NJ.

The total number of sales in the Manhattan buildings were actually up 24.6% in 2017—but median sales prices were down 2.4%. Of these, his prize jewel is the 58-story Trump Tower in midtown, where the price per square foot fell 17.8% from 2016 to 2017. That’s the biggest drop of his New York holdings. There were five sales in the building last year, ranging from $1.8 million to $3.6 million.

The 58-story tower, which carries his name in 4-foot-high golden letters, is located in a heavily trafficked stretch of well-off Fifth Avenue next to famed jeweler Tiffany & Co. When it opened in 1983, the edifice and its flamboyant design came to define the wealth, ambition, and unabashed consumerism of Manhattan in that era. At the time the New York Times wrote that the tower “is a clarion call to wealthy outsiders. … The doormen’s scarlet uniforms and white pith helmets—or high black fur hats in the winter months—evoke Buckingham Palace. Ivana Trump had them custom made in London.”

Trump Tower in New York

Tony Frenzel

The city’s democratic bent may be one reason for the famous building’s residential drop-off. But another is the U.S. Secret Service putting up 24/7 barricades on the street next to the tower after Trump won the presidential race. And the building started to attract protesters—lots of them.

Dolly Lenz, a luxury real estate agent and founder of Dolly Lenz Real Estate in New York, who has sold many units in the Trump Tower over the years, concedes that the frenetic scene is a turnoff to some potential buyers.

“People just want to be able to go in and out, and not go through X-rays,” she says. “If you’re getting back from a black tie and in your high heels, the car can’t even drop you off in the front.”

“I’ve had buyers who are looking for places in New York, but specifically said they don’t want to live in a Trump building,” adds Daniel Neiditch, president of New York–based River 2 River Realty, a luxury real estate brokerage, landlord, and developer. Buyers might “not feeling comfortable with people screaming in their face. And some may not feel comfortable with his name on their building.”

The next biggest price decrease among his Manhattan properties was at the 54-story Trump Palace, a 277-unit condo building on the Upper East Side. The number of sales rose from eight in 2016 to 10 in 2017. However, the price per square foot, a measure of the value of real estate, fell 14.9%, to $1,616.

Outspoken left-leaning commentator Keith Olbermann famously sold his three-bedroom condo in the building for $3.8 million in 2016. After the sale, he tweeted a picture of his keys and this message: “I got out with 90% of my money and 100% of my soul!”

Some buildings chose to remove the Trump name entirely. They included Trump Place, three buildings along the Hudson River on the Upper West Side, where tenants circulated a “Dump the TRUMP name” petition before he was elected. The Trump SoHo Hotel rebranded itself the Dominick Hotel, after a dropoff in business, including several visiting NBA teams that stopped staying at the hotel in protest.

Not every Manhattan buyer was uncomfortable with the Trump name. The city also brought some successes for the Trump Organization last year.

The price per square foot jumped 35.8% in Trump Parc, a former hotel converted into a 38-story condominium tower near Central Park. It was also up 25.2% at Trump Park Avenue, a prewar, 32-story condo building on the Upper East Side.

How are Trump properties faring in the rest of the country? Trump properties in Miami

Tony Frenzel

Nationally, Trump properties generally haven’t fared well since his presidential run.

In his five Florida buildings on Sunny Isles Beach, outside of Miami, sales dropped 23.6% from 2016 to 2017. (The price per square foot in these beach-front towers were also down 6.4% year over year, to $678.) These buildings feature all kinds of high-end amenities, including beachfront cabanas, tennis centers, and heated swimming pools.

Trump Towers at Sunny Isles Beach

felixmizioznikov/Getty Images

At the Trump Hollywood, a 41-story condo building located right on Hollywood Beach in South Florida, sales dropped from 10 units in 2016 to just three in 2017. The price per square foot fell 4.2%, to $692. The building features a theater room, wine cellar, and tasting salon along with a library, two spas, and four tennis courts.

An ocean away, at the Trump Tower Waikiki, which offers hotel rooms and condos in Honolulu, the number of sales also fell, by 13.9% from 2016 to 2017. The price per square foot dropped by 8.4% over the same period with the median sold price of $1,240,000.

But Donald Trump did have some bright spots, even in a state that wound up voting for rival, Hillary Clinton. At the Trump International Hotel Las Vegas, a combination hotel and condo tower off the Strip, the number of sales jumped 54.5%, to 51, in 2017. The price per square foot in the building also increased 13.6%, to $511.

But this is no typical Trump property. The median price of the units sold in the building last year was a more modest $265,000, the lowest of any of the properties listed on the company’s website. The small, furnished condos are popular with out-of-towners who stay in the units when they’re in Vegas, and then have the building’s management company rent them out (and arrange cleanings) the rest of the time.

Trump’s Las Vegas hotel

Tony Frenzel

“It’s a great location, it’s got phenomenal views, it’s right across from one of the best shopping malls in Vegas,” says Dino Satallante, real estate broker at Queensridge in Las Vegas, who is selling a unit in the building for one of his clients. And “you’re getting a little return on your investment and you don’t have to do anything.”

But some of that rise may also be attributed to the real estate market in Las Vegas, which has been very much on the rise as of late. In December realtor.com ranked Las Vegas as the best housing market going into 2018, with a projected price growth of 6.9%.

The age of Trump’s buildings is working against them

Another reason that some of Trump’s properties are seeing sales and price declines is their age: They’re older than the new crop of luxury buildings. Many of his New York City buildings in particular went up or were renovated in the 1980s or 1990s. So they’re competing against a slew of new construction with larger floor plans, the newest amenities, and more modern aesthetics. That makes them a harder sell, say real estate experts.

But despite being older than the newest crop of luxury towers coming online in the past few years, Trump’s units are still among the most prized for their price, says Lenz. Trump’s units in Manhattan sold at prices ranging from $551,000 to $15.9 million last year.

“They aren’t super luxury, and their price point reflects that,” Lenz says. But they’re immaculate, she adds. “He wants his [real estate] reputation to be sterling.”

Outside of New York City, the Trump Organization has some newer buildings. The Trump International Hotel and Tower in Chicago opened in 2009, a project that cost almost $850 million to construct. At 1,388 feet, it’s the fourth-tallest building in the United States.

Trump International Hotel and Tower in Chicago

Tony Frenzel

But the number of sales in the Chicago building dropped from 47 in 2015 to 31 in 2016, and 18 in 2017. And just last year, the price per square foot fell 16.9%, to $756.

“What we are seeing at Trump is atypical of the market,” says Gail Lissner, an appraiser and managing director of Integra Realty Resources in Chicago, which tracks 65 residential buildings in the city. That’s because the Chicago luxury market is typically more steady without big ups and downs.

“This is one of the nicest buildings in Chicago, despite what people might think of the Trump name,” Lissner adds.

The luxury market is softening—not just for Trump properties

Some of the forces working against Trump properties are those affecting the luxury condo market as a whole.

Nationally, it was harder to sell luxury real estate in 2017, as an influx of ultrahigh-end homes have entered the market in recent years. The days that luxury homes sat on the market, a good indicator of the strength or weakness of a market,  increased 5.4%, to 116 days, according to realtor.com data. (We’re defining luxury as the most expensive 5% of homes in a given market.)

At the same time, the overall U.S. housing market heated up, with the days on the market falling to 71, a 7.3% drop.

Meanwhile, luxury real estate in Manhattan has taken an especially hard hit over the past few years.

This is partly due to fewer wealthy, foreign buyers, who are big players in the luxury market . For example, the Chinese government has imposed new restrictions making it harder for citizens to buy property abroad. Trump’s comments on immigration may also dissuade potential foreign buyers.

Foreign buyers are also typically in the market for second, third, or even fourth or fifth homes. So it’s not surprising that Trump’s buildings that cater to secondary home buyers, like Trump Tower, are down the most. The Trump International Hotel and Tower, a building that is home to more primary home buyers, has fared better, Lenz says.

“No perspective purchaser has ever told me they didn’t want to look at or buy a Trump property,” says Lenz. “[It’s that] luxury is down, not that Trump is down.”

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